I’m BaAaAack!

It’s been 4 weeks since my last newsletter! Rest assured, I only skipped the last newsletter since I was on vacation overseas. We are now back on our regular biweekly cadence.

Quick summary on vacation: spent 3 nights in each of these locations: Paris, Bordeaux, Mallorca, Ibiza. Was fortunate to take some time off and unplug to enjoy great food, fine wine, scenic beaches, and A+ music. Highlight of the trip: enjoying a First Growth wine in Bordeaux from my birth year (1989) from Chateau Mouton Rothschild. This was easily the best glass of wine I’ve ever had.

Lots has happened since we last spoke:

• YouTube Shopping and YouTube’s Affiliate program officially rolled out (more below)

• TikTok Shop dropped a 94 page guide (finally) on everything you need to know about the platform. Essentially a 101-guide.

• TikTok Shop UNITED KINGDOM is now open to US-based brands that want to activate in the UK through a closed beta. Should be strongly considered by brands doing $100k+ per month on TikTok Shop US. Rule of thumb for US brands activating in the UK has been to expect ~30% of your US GMV in the UK. This is a huge opportunity for brands looking to continue to scale internationally. If interested, REPLY TO THIS EMAIL.

• NFL season has officially kicked off — weird Week 1! Rookie QBs struggled, lots of stinkers, Giants are pathetic again. Already thinking about 2025 QB options.

• Antonio Brown followed me on X last night 🤯

  

1. YouTube Shopping & Affiliate Has Officially Rolled Out to Shopify Brands!

I covered this announcement back in May when the partnership was originally announced. Now the program is live and available to all Shopify merchants who are on the Plus or Advanced plans! There are over 150 BILLION shoppable views on YouTube per year. This is a sizable opportunity.

In short: YouTube now allows merchants and affiliate creators to tag products in videos to enable “Shop While You Watch” without having to leave the YouTube app and purchase on the brands website. Checkout can happen in YouTube without ever leaving. Much like TikTok Shop, YouTube has now enabled affiliate relationships natively in the platform. Brands can now manage sample requests and affiliate commissions natively within the platform via Google Merchant Center.

For merchants: If you’re interested in getting your YouTube Shopping and Affiliate program setup, read more on eligibility criteria and activation steps HERE.

For affiliates: You must have at least 10k subscribers and be based in the US or South Korea. For info on how to activate your affiliate profile, read more HERE.

So- how does this compare to TikTok Shop’s Affiliate program?

FAR MORE protected & exclusive. 10k subscribers is a high floor.

Also, brands aren’t able to discover and outreach to creators in the platform like they are on TikTok Shop. This is a major limitation for being able to hit scale on YouTube Shopping via affiliates.

At the moment, this program mostly benefits brands who already have a strong YouTube creator database. Brands that are thriving off YouTube, but not on YouTube, will have a higher barrier to entry since most influencers/content creators on TikTok and Meta properties generally do not have YouTube followings in the 5 digit range. Therefore, it will be tough to translate an existing affiliate program on those channels onto YouTube.

Brands that are interested in scaling their YouTube affiliate program will need to use external tools to discover and negotiate with YouTube creators. This is friction that raises the barrier to entry.

We won’t be seeing as many brands win on YouTube Affiliate as we’ve seen with TikTok Shop.

For now- this feels like more of a win for brands that are already large enough to invest time and money into an entirely new affiliate channel.

The barrier to entry on YouTube Affiliate is higher for both creators and brands than on TikTok Shop.

Here’s how YouTube can lower the barrier to entry for brands and creators:

• Brands: Launch a native YouTube Affiliate discovery platform

• Creators: Lower the threshold from 10k subscribers

I’m just not sure YouTube wants to lower the barrier to entry for now.

2. Uncover How a Brand or SKU is Performing 🔍

Ever wonder how a brand or SKU is performing?

A brand I was recently talking to was curious how its next planned SKU (scented mist) was performing for its competitor Sol de Janeiro (Cheirosa Mist).

It was pretty easy to get them the exact info they were looking for using Particl (one of my favorite SaaS tools).

Here's how I use Particl to analyze key competitor data in seconds:

Scaling brands goes FAR beyond clicking buttons in ad accounts.

Most important thing? identifying scalable opportunities:

• new ad channels / marketplaces

• new SKUs

• new partnerships

Particl is THE tool I use for competitor research. It's the Kalodata for DTC brand websites. If you’ve seen my TikTok Shop posts, you’ve seen my Kalodata screenshots to get insights on TikTok Shop.

It allows you to drill down into a DTC brand's:

• Revenue & trends

• SKU & variant performance

• Pricing/merchandising log

• Inventory levels

I utilized this info to answer the big question: Should this brand launch a competing SKU vs Cheirosa Perfume Mist?

First, I reviewed Sol de Janeiro's YoY revenue trends.

I noticed that:

• July '24: weak month for the store (only +10% YoY)

• August '24: BIG month (pacing to 100% YoY growth)

So which SKU(s) were contributing to this?! I noticed that Cheirosa Mist was 3 of the Top 5 SKUs...

BUT, next I drilled down into the #2 best seller: The Bum Bum Cream

I quickly noticed it was underperforming. July '24 showed that:

• Revenue for Bum Bum Cream was -25% YoY

• Inventory levels were -82% YoY

• Restocks were lower in magnitude

* This screamed weakness of their #2 SKU, BUT if the store was growing YoY, there had to be strength in another SKU.

As I dug deeper with Particl, I noticed there was significant strength in the Cheirosa Mist

Particl exposed this about the Mist:

• July '24: Revenue was +54% YoY

• Aug '24: on pace for 100% YoY growth

• It's grown to ~50% of Sol de Janeiro’s GMV

So why are the past 2 months so big?

Midway thru June, SDJ dropped a NEW Mist scent! This is largely the factor that contributed to SDJ's store revenue growth this summer. It quickly became the top-selling SKU for them.

Particl tracks when new SKUs are “first seen” which enables research on new product launches. It also tracks variant performance.

Based on the above data, it’s easy to identify that pink is the best performing color (1/2 the # of variants as yellow, yet pink variants produce 3x the GMV) for mist. If the brand I’m talking to is unsure about what color the variants should be, this data is invaluable.

After parsing through Particl’s platform, I gave the brand the following…

Summary:

• market is RIPE for scented mist SKU

• brand should be confident to launch it

• new scent drops trigger GMV bumps

• scent drop heading into summer is proven to work

It took me 15 minutes to pull all this data & form a POV.

Paid media tactics get ALL the buzz, but the biggest performance levers are OUTSIDE ad accounts for brands.

REMEMBER: You're only as good as your leverage of the tools around you. Particl is one that's underutilized. Will share my other use cases in future newsletters.

If you’re interested in exploring Particl, they’re actually running a free trial right now, so there’s no better time. It's actually an opportune time to check out your competitors inventory levels as we head into Q4…

Check them out HERE.

3. Q4 is <1 mo Away: 5 Things to Iron Out ASAP⏳

We are 2 months away from Black November!

I have over 10 Black Friday/Cyber Monday seasons under my belt (on both the agency AND brand sides). I’ve seen the good, the bad, and the ugly. Unfortunately the same ugly mistakes rear their ugly heads year in, year out.

BRANDS: Here are 5 things you MUST iron out before Q4 is upon us👇

 1. Understand Your Audience

One surprising insight I gathered from last year’s BFCM post-purchase data (thanks KnoCommerce) is that first-time buyers during BFCM typically fall into two categories:

• known about your brand for 12+ months

• just discovered you within the last month

The 1st group is waiting for the perfect deal to make their move. The 2nd group is made up of deal-hunters who are ready to purchase if the offer is right.

This means your BFCM strategy needs to cater to both audiences—long-time observers waiting to strike and new customers who are deal-driven. Consider different deals for different audience segments.

2. Inventory Forecasting

The most common & impactful mistake I continue to witness.

Overshoot or undershoot- both are equally painful. Under-stocking can completely wreck Q4.

Gain confidence in inventory forecasting by tracking your competitors. When (and how much) are your competitors replenishing each SKU? Use a tool like Particl to enable this! 

You still have 2 months to account for any potential inventory shortfalls in November/December. Correct course ASAP.

3. Clear and Immediate Communication

BFCM is a frenzy of deal shopping and consumers are bombarded with offers. I always stress the ‘half-second rule’‼️

Your deals need to be understood within half a second of someone seeing your ad. If the deal isn't clear and understood within half a second, consider that prospect lost. Also, that offer must be clear throughout the customer journey. If a prospect clicks on a 25% off ad, that discount should be visible from the product page through checkout. Don’t expect them to hunt around for it — they won’t✌️

4. Create Urgency

Urgency drives action.

Without a clear end time for the sale, customers may assume they have more time than they do and end up getting distracted by other offers.

Use sticky countdown timers on your website, make the end date date clear in your ad and email copy, and make sure you reiterate urgency throughout your comms... like "Stock Limited,” etc.

5. Agility and Segmentation

Flexibility is your secret weapon during BFCM. BFCM planning and strategy does NOT stop once Black Friday begins!

If a particular offer isn’t hitting your goals, don’t wait—pivot quickly.

Yes, that means you may have to scrap all those creatives and ads you made that highlighted the particular offer you went live with.

Use templates so you can easily edit your assets to reflect the new sale you're pivoting to.

Additionally, segmentation is key. Tailor your email and SMS offers based on customer segments.

For example-- you may offer a more aggressive discount to 1yr+ email subscribers who never purchased vs. a segment that that is less price sensitive.

I see the same issues nuke DTC brands' most critical weekend each year. No margin for error in this 4-day span. It can make or break your month, quarter, or year. It's your Super Bowl. You only get one shot each year.

👀 I’ll continue to share my BFCM strategies, insights, and learnings in each newsletter for the next couple months until BFCM concludes.

Will the Q4 ‘24 Consumer resemble Q4 ‘23?

Tough to tell. Signs are pointing to a similar Q4 YoY. There are headwinds (like the election) and tailwinds (like the inevitable imminent rate cut) that are in play here, combined with a flat overall consumer spend year.

Here’s a quick consumer strength check!

CONSUMER SPENDING:

Nothing new or exciting to report: 2024 has been the ultimate flat year. August showed a slight YoY improvement on consumer indexed spend in August (+1.7%) from July (-1.3%).

CONSUMER SENTIMENT:

On the consumer sentiment front, University of Michigan releases their Consumer Sentiment Index reading for August this week.

August is expected to read flat relative to July. For reference, July was the worst consumer sentiment month in all of 2024. This isn’t exactly the momentum we were all hoping for.

Toss in the election happening in Q4 and we could be sensing sincere weakness as we head into the most important quarter of the year!

FORECASTED CONSUMER SPEND:

Bankrate recently published an August survey of 2300 adults where they asked how they would be spending this holiday season. The results are uninspiring. With 43% saying they’ll spend the same as 2023, a higher proportion of the remaining pie expect to spend LESS this year than last year. 33% are anticipating to spend less and only 24% are anticipating to spend more.

Small sample size and subjective in nature, but this shows how consumers are thinking, and it’s not rosy.

KEEP AN EYE ON THIS: The Federal Reserve meets on September 18 to announce whether it will cut rates by 50bps or 25bps. Right now, the market has a 70% probability on the smaller move (25bps), according to the CME FedWatch tool, and a 30% probability on the larger cut (50bps). It’s a foregone conclusion at this point that there WILL be a cut. This is a sigh of relief.

What I’m Listening to 🎧

Beats of the Week: Antdot: Pendrive #40

Antdot is BACK! He went on a 4 month hiatus without posting a new Pendrive mix. The wait was well worth it. The best track I’ve heard in months is dropped at the ~16-minute mark. Fast forward to that spot and turn up the volume. I’ve listened to this mix 5+ times already.

I welcome all feedback. Good, bad, everything in between.

Hit reply, and let’s hear it! 👂

📧 Share your thoughts or what you want me to cover next!