If I Were to Launch a DTC Brand Today... (Week 7)

My 10-pt criteria for DTC brand building, TikTok US Ban?! and New Pod!

WHAT A WEEKEND.

Last week I spoke on a panel at FounderMade in Austin. Had never been to a FounderMade event before, but it was incredible. High quality, curated list of attendees that are up to big things. Had a great time on the panel with execs from Chubbies, The Honey Pot, and Vayner. Capped off the trip with an excellent event thrown by Fermat Commerce and of course grabbed some Austin BBQ on my way to the airport. The BBQ kind of underwhelmed though (Terry Black’s— food came cold!).

UFC 299 with Chris Meade, Rabah Rahil, and Joel Padron.

Got back just in time for UFC 299 in Miami on Saturday. Went with some fellow DTC legends and had an incredible night. It was the most stacked card ever and was easily the best live event I’ve ever attended. Was lucky enough to snag seats right next to the tunnel so we were able to see every fighter and celeb come in and out of the arena. Had some cool exchanges. I’ll leave you with this video that I took of Sean O’Malley hobbling out of the stadium after a dominant title-defending performance.

Sean O’Malley after defending his belt at UFC 299. Video Cred: Me 😉

Sean swept Marlon Vera 5-0 unanimously. He won the championship in dominant fashion. Yet he still hobbled off, barely upright.

Let this be a reminder that winning is not easy. Despite winning a championship, you won’t come out unscathed. You will take your lumps and bruises. Weather the storm and cruise on to your Championship.

1. TikTok Ban in the US?!

This is probably the 100th time you’ve heard this in the last few days. Many are confused by what’s actually going on and what they should be doing to “prepare” for doomsday. I’ll break it down for you succinctly:

  • There is a bill floating around right now that (if passed) requires ByteDance to divest its US TikTok operations to a US-based company in less than 6 months, OR get banned.

  • If passed, and it does not divest, Apple and Google would have to remove it from the app store. This would make TikTok largely useless longterm.

  • The main concern in the US is that TikTok is a national security risk due to China’s access to US citizens’ first party data via the app. Other concerns are largely due to China’s ability to influence American politics through algorithm manipulation and agenda-driving activity.

  • Last Thursday, March 7, The House Energy and Commerce Committee voted 50-0 to advance the bill.

  • If approved by the House and Senate, the bill goes to the desk of President Biden, who has signaled support for this bill.

  • It is expected that the House will pass the bill this week, then it would head to the Senate, where belief is that it would not pass.

SO… Will TikTok Get Banned?!

Will this bill pass through House and Senate and President? Possible, although I peg it at much < 50% chance.

If passed, will it go straight through? Absolutely not. Anyone that thinks TikTok would actually divest or be shutdown entirely in the US in 2024 is getting too headline happy. Media wants you to believe it’s going away tomorrow. Engagement bait sells. If the bill did pass, I assure you this would get appealed and contested and be dragged out for years. ByteDance wouldn’t just go peacefully into the night and hand over their ~$100B baby.

If actually upheld in Supreme Court after appeal, would ByteDance divest TikTok and sell to a US company? Perhaps. If we actually get this far (highly unlikely), rumblings are they wouldn’t divest, but that’s probably all talk. Getting to this stage would take far longer than the media wants you to believe.

So will TikTok actually get banned?! You have a much better chance of having a 16 seed upset a 1 seed in two weeks than this happening.

Should you stop investing time and energy as a brand on TikTok?! Absolutely not. If TikTok divested to a US company, it would still exist here. Even IF TikTok refused to divest and got “banned,” it would take years to take effect and all of the time and energy you’re investing into the platform would NOT go to waste. TikTok organic and influencer content all translate directly to Meta and YouTube. Your TikTok assets and IP would 100% translate to use elsewhere. Do not let media headlines deter you. This chatter started 3 years ago and we’re still in the same spot with the same headlines. Move along!

2. New Podcast Out with Don't V*LOOKUP

Sat down last week with Bar and Will from one of my favorite podcasts & newsletters: Don't V*LOOKUP to discuss my career journey and... my favorite new topic: TikTok Shops.

Watch until the end for my 3 pieces of advice to business owners.

Will Holtz (VP of Ops at Prescient AI ) & Bar Bruhis (VP of Rev at KnoCommerce) are respected veterans in the field and have had some incredible guests to date from BYLT, Geologie, ILIA Beauty, Chomps, and BruMate.

What I love most about their content is that it’s tactical and actionable. You will come away from each newsletter and podcast smarter and have a few new tricks to take home with you.

Here are the links to the Don't V*LOOKUP podcast and newsletter:

3. If I were to start a DTC brand today…

I got a question last week from the one and only Rabah Rahil. It’s a deep one:

If you had to launch a DTC brand today, what would it be?

- Rabah Rahil

I’ve closely analyzed 1k+ brands in the past decade. My response to him should be insightful to many of you reading this.

Here’s my 10-pt. criteria for launching a brand today:

  1. High margin: 75%+ gross margin

  2. Low SKU count: low variant count, low horizontal SKU count

  3. Clear Hero SKU

  4. Lead Times < 60 Days

  5. Functional product: problem → solution driven

  6. Consumable daily: enables seamless monthly subscriptions

  7. Sticky demographic: one that really feels this pain point and won’t abandon “solving” it

  8. Less than 1 lb.: easy & economic shipping, fulfillment, storage

  9. Category defining: walk into a big box retailer, there should not be a dupe of the hero SKU sitting on the shelf. Needs to differentiate.

  10. Not in the prohibited products category on social media

This leaves us with something in the wellness/supplement space. Digging further, I’d research within the trending categories. Follow the dollars. This leaves us with something in the weight management or longevity category.

Both categories address significant concerns of consumers today: gaining weight and dying too soon. Both would entail daily addressing of the matter and it’s hard to think that consumers who enter this product category will ever abandon this.

Here’s a little Google Trend snapshot of search terms “weight management” and “live longer” over the past 5 years. Both show strong, steady growth. This is exactly what you want to see. You don’t want to enter a space that is volatile or trendy and has the chance to fall off a cliff.

Wealthy vs. Rich

I came across this tweet the other day and it stuck with me. There’s a major difference between being wealthy and being rich. Here’s the main difference:

Wealth: Time x Money

Rich: Money

Would you rather be rich with more money and little emphasis on time? Or wealthy? It is certainly possible for a rich person to have more money than a wealthy person. Yet, the wealthy person lives an “enriched” life. Filled with time to spend with loved ones, time to pursue hobbies, time to decompress, time to travel, and time to build & maintain friendships.

It’s easy to get caught in the rat race. I’ve heard from those who have. They live a lavish life but have a feeling of emptiness. That extra 2x in money didn’t bring them a lifestyle improvement but it sure did suck up a ton more of their precious time that could have been spent living a more fulfilling life.

Anytime I’m faced with the choice of taking on an incremental opportunity, my framework is pretty simple:

Will this added stress and mental bandwidth consumption yield me more freedom or a lifestyle improvement?

If the answer is no, it’s not worth my time.

Give me wealth over being rich any day.

What I’m Listening to 🎧

Beats of the Week: Afro House Mix March 2024 (by The Groove Gathering)

The Groove Gathering is my favorite YouTube channel for monthly mixes. They put out a new afro house mix the 1st week each month and they all hit. Perfect background music. Already listened to this one 5 times since it dropped.

Until next week! ✌️

I welcome all feedback. Good, bad, everything in between.

Hit reply, and let’s hear it! 👂

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Yours truly,

Jonathan Snow

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