Q3 in Full Swing!

Lots has happened in the last couple weeks since my last newsletter. Q3 is off to a fast start.

Quick Rundown:

• Pretty DRASTIC update coming to 𝕏:engagement counts AND engagement buttons will be removed (like, comment, RT) from the timeline. ONLY view count will show on tweets (top right corner) - to like/comment/RT, need to swipe or force touch. More here.

• TikTok Shop blesses high AOV brands: Brands can now offer users Interest-FREE credit card installments on $50+ orders. No cost/fees to brands. No-brainer. Must opt in by August 9. More here.

• June came in at the lowest inflation rate in 3 years: CPI inflation fell by -0.1% in June 2024, below expectations of a +0.1% increase. This is the first NEGATIVE month-over-month inflation rate since May 2020. Hugely positive news for consumers and the economy.

Now onto the good stuff!

1. My Bold Prediction: the Future of TikTok Content

Watch the video above for my 3-minute rundown on why I expect TikTok to change as we know it… NOT because of it getting “banned” or sold, but b/c of how it will morph as a content platform.

Historically, TikTok has been THE short-form content platform. It popularized the 9×16 15 second content format. Meta copied them with IG and FB Reels, so did YouTube with Shorts. Well… that’s been changing.

Anecdotally I began noticing that my “For You” page has started showing LIVE content 50% of the time vs the native short form content we’re so accustomed to consuming on TikTok.

Now, I’m not referring to TikTok Live SHOPPING. I’m talking about TikTok Live ENTERTAINMENT (aka no product being pushed).

Last week, I met with one of TikTok’s Live Entertainment reps and it’s clear that this is the new growth opportunity for them as a platform.

Creators can now go Live, talk about anything they want, no product being pushed, and engage with viewers. Viewers can now “tip” creators in the form of coins, diamonds, etc which equates to cash on the backend. Creators and TikTok split this “tip” revenue.

Currently, TikTok is doing ~$10M in revenue per day on creator live entertainment tips alone. And this is just getting started.

TikTok is betting that live content will increase engagement, time spent on the platform, and bridge the gap between creators and viewers like never before…

Precisely why “comment-response” style videos always performed well. It simply fostered more discussion and connection with creators and consumers alike.

Very interesting pivot for TikTok. I’m intrigued.

2. Reels Trends 👀

We all know Meta is pushing Reels HARD. For good reason.

Our entire portfolio is trending UP & to the RIGHT on both Facebook AND Instagram Reels spend & ROAS.

Prioritizing short-form Reels content is now table stakes on Meta. It’s not optional. All the more reason to scale your influencer programs through TikTok Affiliates. Get Reels formatted content for FREE, request usage rights to the content, and run them as Reels ads on Meta. Simple recipe really.

If your growth chart doesn't resemble this, you should prioritize Reels content. If you need help on this, reach out to us.

3. Inflation’s Impact on Consumer Behavior in Ecommerce

Retail Dive put out a great piece on ecommerce consumer behavior in the wake of inflation. In summary:

• 61% of consumers that were surveyed changed their online shopping habits in response to higher prices.

• 90% of respondents said their cost of living has gone up over the past 5 years. 

• 50% of respondents said they’ve considered stacking multiple coupons or reselling highly desired products.

• Highest spending categories online: groceries, clothing, home goods.

• Top factors that incentivize consumers to purchase from brands online: free shipping (63%), affordable goods (61%), frequent sales (36%), free and straightforward returns (34%) and loyalty incentives (33%).

I’ve been consistently vocal about the slowing of consumer spend in the past couple years. When adjusted for inflation, we are actually in negative YoY territory. Main issues at hand are inflation, lower consumer savings, higher consumer debt, decreased wage growth & job market pain, and higher cost of living. This leaves the consumer with far less discretionary spend.

Good thing inflation rate just turned negative for the first time in 3 years. We’re on our way to a interest rate cut in September, which will give the market & consumer confidence strong tailwind.

Is it Too Early to Launch Back to School Campaigns?

Absolutely NOT! Launch Back To School campaigns ASAP.

Last 12mo TikTok indexed trend on #backtoschool depicted above.

Interest in the category has started spiking (green arrow). It'll rise & peak on August 11 (red arrow). Sooner than you'd expect!

NRF also just published that 55% of back-to-school and college shoppers have already begun buying items for the upcoming school year. This was featured by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics in their annual report.

NRF reports that while over half of back-to-school and college shoppers have begun buying, 86% still have at least half of their overall purchases left to complete.

The top reasons consumers still have shopping to do are because they are waiting for the best deals (45%) or they don’t know what is needed yet (45%).

The time to capitalize on this trend is NOW. Don't wait until mid-August. Ship your back to school campaigns!

What I’m Listening to 🎧

Beats of the Week: Keinemusik at Giza Pyramids 2024

These guys have been top of the deep house scene for the past couple years. They aren’t slowing down either. Great new live set they released at the Giza Pyramids. They set a great vibe and make for great background music while working. BPMs are a bit low, but melodic tunes will carry you through the day in a positive mindset.

Till next time!

I welcome all feedback. Good, bad, everything in between.

Hit reply, and let’s hear it! 👂

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